TEXAS SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AND AVISORY
STORM SPOTTER LIVE METOPS FORT WORTH TX
300PM CDT MONDAY JUNE 15 2009

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS AND ISOLATED...
...TORNADOES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS ON...
...MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING...

.WEATHER SYNOPSIS...
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
OR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA... AND POSSIBLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS BY
EVENING... COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...
WILL SUPPORT STORMS ORGANIZING INTO A LARGER COMPLEX MOVING MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS... INCLUDING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING HAD GENERALLY WASHED OUT BY MIDDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WAS A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... HOWEVER CURRENT
TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO DISSIPATE OR MOVE NORTH
INTO KANSAS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MOST ANYWHERE IN THE AREA AS THE CAPPING
INVERSION WEAKENS... BUT THE LACK OF A REMAINING BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS ACTIVITY RELATIVELY
ISOLATED.

VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON... WITH THE
MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.TORNADO RISK...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EARLY EVELOPING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND EASTERN 2/3 OF TEXAS PANHANDLE. THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED IN NATURE.

.LARGE HAIL RISK...
VERY LARGE HAIL TO NEAR 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING.

.DAMAGING WIND RISK...
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
IN TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT.

.FLOODING RAINFALL RISK...
NO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE RISK AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVATION BY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 
ACTIVATION ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST
TEXAS.

.PRODUCT NOTICE...
THIS IS NOT A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PRODUCT. WHILE SOME OF THIS PRODUCT 
MAY BE BASED IN PART ON RAW NWS DATA THIS FORECAST PRODUCT IS ISSUED BY 
STORM SPOTTER LIVE METOPS METEOROLOGISTS IN FORT WORTH TEXAS AND IS INTENDED 
FOR OUR CLIENTS SPCIFIC USE. IT CAN BE USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL OFFICIAL 
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. 
PLEASE SEE THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL
OUTLOOK.

.FORECASTER...
...BASHAM...SSL METOPS FT WORTH TX


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